Fred's Week #2 Results
Week #2 for Fred's Teaser Picks did not go exactly as planned, but we still won back some of the money lost last week. Fred's won 6 games and lost 3 this weekend, including some thrilling games. Philly scored in the last minute to overcome Tennessee, and Kansas City scored twice in overtime to beat Indy. After the first two weeks, Fred's Teaser Picks has won 9 games and lost 6 for an overall win percentage of 60%, which is well below our historical 75% win rate. I expect better results in future weeks.
| Home | Away | Home Line | Bet On | Score | Result | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Cincy | -2.5 | Cincy +8.5 | 6-20 | W | A |
| Chic | Minn | -4.5 | Minn +10.5 | 3-9 | W | B |
| Tenn | Phil | +7 | Phil -1 | 20-24 | W | C |
| Denver | Jacks | -2.5 | Jacks +8.5 | 20-13 | W | D |
| LAChargers | LV | -6.5 | LAC -0.5 | 14-26 | L | E |
| Dallas | Wash | -3.5 | Wash +9.5 | 37-20 | L | F |
| SF | Miami | -13.5 | Miami +19.5 | 35-13 | L | G |
| KC | Indy | -6.5 | KC -0.5 | 33-30 | W | H |
| LARams | NYGiants | -7 | LARams -1 | 28-6 | W | I |
Given the mediocre win rate so far, the overall profit/loss could have been much worse. But the system benefited from the way the losses were grouped together. In the "Result" column above, you can see that the 3 losses were in consecutive games, which worked in bettors' favor if you followed Fred's grouping strategy. If you had bet 3-team teasers in the order presented (using the convention of labeling the 9 games A through I), you would have won 4 bets (ABC, BCD, HIA, and IAB) and lost the other 5. Betting $50 to win $90 produced winnings of $360 (4 x $90) and losses of -$250 (5 x -$50), for a net gain of $110. If the three losses had been spread evenly, there would have been no winners at all, and the loss would have been -$450 (9 x -$50).
The 4-team bets followed a similar pattern. Three winning 4-team teasers (ABCD, HIAB, and IABC) generated $450 (3 x $150) in winnings, with 6 losses totaling -$300 (6 x -$50), yielding a net gain of $150. The result for six-team bets was not quite as fortunate, but not disastrous, with a loss of only $25.
Here's a table summarizing my Week #2 results:
| 3-Team | 4-Team | 6-Team | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting Balance (9/15) | $840 | $4,241 | $2,050 |
| Bets Won | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Bets Lost | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Risked per Bet | $50 | $50 | $25 |
| Win per Bet | $90 | $150 | $175 |
| Total Won | $360 | $450 | $175 |
| Total Lost | ($250) | ($300) | ($200) |
| Net for the Weekend | $110 | $150 | ($25) |
| Ending Balance (9/22) | $950 | $4,391 | $2,025 |
Assumes nine $50 wagers on 3-team teasers, nine $50 wagers on 4-team teasers, and nine $25 wagers on 6-team teasers.
While we are still down for the year, the season is young, and we have plenty of time for our picks to turn positive.